Market Momentum
- Price Action: Bitcoin trades above $109,000, regaining bullish momentum and igniting a broader altcoin rally.
- Pattern Watch: A head-and-shoulders formation is developing near $105K–$106K, raising short-term pullback risks.
- Death Cross Averted: BTC narrowly avoids a "death cross" (the 50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA), signaling resilience and trend continuation.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Support: $105,000 → neckline zone of H&S; breakdown could target $101K–$102K
- Resistance: $110,800 and $113,300 → breakout may reignite upside momentum toward ATH zones.
Institutional & On-Chain Flows
- Institutional Demand: Continued accumulation from ETFs and corporate treasuries (e.g., MicroStrategy, BlackRock) reinforces long-term bullish bias.
- On-Chain Signals:
- Whales accumulating: Exchange outflows and large wallet movements suggest strategic positioning.
- Supply squeeze: Limited sell pressure as long-term holders remain strong.
Macro Backdrop
- Dollar Weakness: Rising U.S. fiscal stress and dovish Fed rate expectations weaken the USD, which has historically been supportive of BTC.
- Inverse Correlation to Treasuries: Bitcoin's correlation to U.S. Treasuries hits record negative levels, reinforcing its role as a macro hedge.
- Volatility Triggers Ahead:
- Upcoming U.S. inflation data
- Geopolitical developments and trade negotiations
BTCUSD – H4 Timeframe
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Last month, Bitcoin's price shot above the $110,000 mark, creating a new All-Time High. The price action on the 4-hour timeframe chart of BTCUSD is now in the supply region with early signs of possible rejection. The bearish sentiment remains intact unless the price breaks above the recent high.
Analyst's Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target- 107229.77
Invalidation- 112001.33
CONCLUSION
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